Only in the last two years we started seeing a shift - where manufacturing methods, the scale of operations, even the scale of R&D surrounding batteries and Li-ion in particular - started to increase into the automotive level, to the energy storage level for the grid. And this is having a profound effect on the rate of decline of the cost. For the past decade that was driven by consumer electronics industries and now it’s on a new curve, a much more aggressive and steeper growth curve that yield faster rate of reduction in cost."
However he was skeptic about the future of development of electric motors. "... electric motors are also seeing fairly rapid improvements, although in this case electric motors are a little closer to the limits of physics so i don't expect to see as dramatic improvements coming from that area."
"The level of demand and the example that Model 3 has set is not gone unnoticed of course within the industry. It will have a strong effect on future planning among large OEMs. More companies are taking electrification much more seriously than perhaps they would have otherwise.
Even the Model S was a very strong data point for the entire industry. The technology could be made into a product that has wide accessibility and could be commercially successful. Prior to Tesla, that was dismissed and not widely accepted. We still encounter many many companies that will dismiss this. Electrification is not a common viewpoint in the whole industry but certainly becoming well regarded and well understood."
He then turned to dealing with the hurdles of autonomous driving and warned original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the automotive industry to start developing and adopting these technologies or risk falling behind new startups like Tesla.
"There are hundreds and thousands of startup companies other than Tesla working on innovation in transport, the nature of the technology of these new problems is not the same as the nature of technology that was addressed in many cases by large OEMs - maybe Bombardier an exception having an early history early in electrification - but in many cases, large car and truck companies are not focused on software, not focused on sensors and batteries, and this gives an opportunity for innovation with new companies and new entrances to play on a bit more of a level playing field than there ever was in the past."
When asked by the panel moderator Pat Cox what his read is of the "Tesla effect" for OEMs who have tooled up for internal combustion engine, Straubel had this to say:
"The level of demand and the example that Model 3 has set is not gone unnoticed of course within the industry. It will have a strong effect on future planning among large OEMs. More companies are taking electrification much more seriously than perhaps they would have otherwise.
Even the Model S was a very strong data point for the entire industry. The technology could be made into a product that has wide accessibility and could be commercially successful. Prior to Tesla, that was dismissed and not widely accepted. We still encounter many many companies that will dismiss this. Electrification is not a common viewpoint in the whole industry but certainly becoming well regarded and well understood."
You can watch the full keynote speech and Q&A below:
In about 4-5 years, there will be several fully-autonomous vehicles on the market. Most will be purchased by Uber/Lyft-type companies. Tesla and Apple may do their own Uber service.
ReplyDeleteWithin ten years of today, it will be obvious to everyone that not owning a car, and just using a door-to-door service, is the future. Within 20 years of today, you will no longer be able to buy an internal combustion commuter car. Gasoline will be hard to find.
All the autonomous vehicles (AVs) will be powered by renewable energy. This will be a marketing tool and any company not doing so will be at a disadvantage in the market.
Physics favors EVs over ICE from an efficiency POV. Since the AVs will all be programmed to hypermile, the economics will be vastly in favor of the AV.
"Within ten years of today, it will be obvious to everyone that not owning a car, and just using a door-to-door service, is the future"
DeleteNot likely. The US is unlikely to move away from 9-5 mentality, thus most workers will retain individual vehicles rather than be inconvenienced by waiting for their turn for a ride. Other unlikely or freedom limiting factors would be needed (work shift staggering, etc)
"Within ten years of today, it will be obvious to everyone that not owning a car, and just using a door-to-door service, is the future"
DeleteNot likely. The US is unlikely to move away from 9-5 mentality, thus most workers will retain individual vehicles rather than be inconvenienced by waiting for their turn for a ride. Other unlikely or freedom limiting factors would be needed (work shift staggering, etc)
I think one of the great advantages of ridesharing with autonomous vehicles could be the ability to do instantaneous carpools. Traditional carpools are constraining to the participants if they need to vary their daily travel times. With AV's and the Internet one could specify the start, destination, and departure time, and within a few moments an optimal rider-car pairing could be scheduled. But, why share the ride? Because there will not be enough cars under any reasonable scenario for the majority of people to travel at the same time--the dreaded rush-hour. And solo riders in AV's would produce more congestion and more miles traveled because the vehicle has to drive to pick up the passenger. But with carpooling the number of miles traveled and the number of cars on the road can drop substantially, resulting in less congestion, less energy spent on transportation, and lower cost overall.
ReplyDelete